The 52nd State

Saturday, July 23, 2005

Forget Mecca, nuke Iran

Saw this very late last night but was too tired to blog it properly.

Iran has always been the next target for the Bush administration, and Dick Cheney has made this even more clear, according to leaked instructions to generals from the Vice President. In the event of another 9/11 type attack, the US military will attack Iran - not just with conventional missiles, but with "tactical nukes." The following is from the print version of the American Conservative as quoted by Justin Logan.

The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick Cheney's office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. Within Iran there are more than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option.

As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States. Several senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly appalled at the implications of what they are doing - that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack - but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objections.

The writer is Philip Giraldi, a former CIA agent, who has formidable contacts within intelligence and military circles. As a result, it is reasonable to regard this information as being almost certainly correct.

According to Atrios and others, this was also quoted in a TPM Cafe story, but their site appears to be down currently. However no other media has picked this up, which is rather disappointing. Kos also has a long thread that discusses, among other things, the (im)practicallity of an invasion and possible motives.

It doesn't take a genius to realise that this is a very, very bad idea. Not only would the entire Muslim world be outraged to the point where no Muslim country would support US interests, but the US military does not have the capacity to subdue Iran like it has Iraq (not that it even did a good job there), their forces are stretched too thin. This, along with the implications of going nuclear, are why many generals are horrified with the plans, and why they have leaked this information.

An attack on Iran, especially a nuclear one, would almost certainly be counter-productive. Support for terrorists would be galvanised and the call for jihad would be increased significantly, creating yet more problems for the western world, not to mention the rocketing oil prices - particularly if Iran resorts to destroying oil infrastructure.

Iran doesn't even have to be involved in a 9/11 level attack for the strike to go ahead, they are just the next mob on the hit list that will make the government look like it's doing something in response. A terrorist attack would be nothing but an excuse. Are we in familiar territory yet?

This is insanity - scary insanity for an unjustifiable plan that is likely to produce Lancet-level casualties.